Inventory across the South Denver Metro is up roughly 12% year-over-year as of mid-March — but that number hides a lot of variation by zip code and price point. Here's what the data actually shows, and what it means if you're thinking about buying or selling this spring.
Inventory: Up, But Unevenly
Active listings in Arapahoe County are up 15% from this time last year. Douglas County is only up about 8%. The biggest increases are in the $500K-$650K range, which is where most move-up families are shopping.
That matters because more inventory means more options for buyers — but it also means sellers in that price range need to be sharper on pricing. Overpricing by even 3-4% is now resulting in 30+ DOM instead of 14, and the data shows those listings typically sell for less than they would have at a correct initial price.
Pricing: Stable With a Caveat
Median sale prices are essentially flat year-over-year across most South Denver communities. Littleton is at $585K, Highlands Ranch at $660K, Centennial at $620K. The appreciation wave from 2020-2022 has fully normalized.
The caveat: price per square foot is still ticking up slightly in neighborhoods with strong walkability and light rail access. Littleton proper and parts of Englewood are outperforming the broader market on a per-square-foot basis.
Absorption Rates: What Sellers Should Watch
Absorption rate — the pace at which available inventory is being sold — is the metric I pay most attention to. Across South Denver, we're sitting at roughly 2.8 months of supply. That's still a seller's market on paper, but it's a meaningful shift from the 1.2 months we saw 18 months ago.
Anything above 3 months starts to feel balanced, and some sub-markets (especially the $700K+ range in Centennial) are already there. If you're selling in that range, pricing strategy matters more than it has in years.
What This Means for Buyers
You have more leverage than you've had in three years — but not unlimited leverage. Well-priced homes under $600K are still seeing multiple offers within the first week. The shift is that inspection concessions and appraisal gaps are rarely expected anymore. You can compete without taking on unnecessary risk.
What This Means for Sellers
Price it right from day one. The data is clear: homes priced at or slightly below market value in the first week sell faster and net more than homes that sit and reduce. If you're thinking about listing this spring, the best time to have the pricing conversation is before you go live — not after your first 30 days on market.
If you're curious what the data looks like for your specific neighborhood and price point, I'm happy to pull a custom analysis. No obligation — just real numbers.
Call me at 303-997-0634 or schedule a call.